Tocqueville Fellows Blog, Featuring Mary Christine Helms: Is America Destined to Lose to China?

Rethinking Popular Narratives on U.S.-China Relations

By Mary Christine Helms

Mary, a Tocqueville Fellow from Gulfport, Mississippi, is a member of Furman University’s Class of 2026, double majoring in Classics and Psychology.

Media Determinism in the American View of China

In today’s popular media, there is a strong tone of determinism in the way political scientists, pundits, and typical Americans talk about China—as if the trajectory of U.S.-China relations is fixed and unchangeable. Especially in conservative-leaning circles, there is a tendency to assume that the number one foreign policy issue facing America today is our competition with China, and that this is a competition America will likely lose.

As a student of Classics and Psychology, I do not run in the higher circles of understanding in political science. I gain my understanding of foreign events and policy through a jumbled-together group of popular sources: news channels, newsfeeds, well-informed professors, and all kinds of secondhand sources through my family and friends.

But I am a citizen of the United States, and I care for her future. Because of this care, the popular discourse on China troubles me.

The Popular Portrayal of U.S.-China Relations

I have heard bleak stories outlining how Americans have sold our public land to the Chinese government, how we are in deep, deep debt to China, and how the Chinese government is actively working to dominate other countries (quietly, though, through the provision of infrastructure and similar support). I have heard stories of the threat of advancing technology in China and, of course, of the threat of the anti-democratic communist government of China.

Up until the Tocqueville Center’s event on America in the World, I was pretty sold on this determinism myself. After all, it’s all I heard from the voices around me.

What Dr. Susan Shirk Revealed: China’s Internal Struggles

Domestic Tensions in Xi Jinping’s Leadership

However, in her lecture “Global Politics and the Rise of China,” Dr. Susan Shirk offered several reasons why China is not the predetermined death sentence it is often made out to be. The largest one? China’s own domestic tensions.

President Xi Jinping is not well-liked in many sectors. His original campaign strategy—ending corruption created in the past administration—has now devolved to punishing his own protégés and supporters for perceived disloyalty.

Tocqueville Fellows attend Dr. Susan Shirk’s lecture on U.S.-China relations at Furman University.

President Xi also handled COVID poorly. Strict lockdowns led to a deprivation of necessary resources for many citizens. Then, President Xi rejected the foreign vaccines which might have alleviated the pandemic, in favor of an attempt to develop a vaccine domestically. The lockdowns and lack of relief together led to massive protests, which in turn caused the virus to spread even faster and cause far more deaths.

Contrary, then, to some popular sources, President Xi does not govern a nation of single-minded, loyal citizens.

“Long-Distance Fishing”: A Symptom of Weak Local Governance

Another sign that China is doing badly domestically is a phenomenon Dr. Shirk called “long-distance fishing.” Local governments are underfunded by the federal government, and this has led to these local governments charging rich citizens—who live outside of the particular government’s locality—with trumped-up or false crimes.

These charges then force the individual to come to the local district. Once there, these people are effectively held for ransom until they themselves pay to settle the charges against them.

I do not think it is ridiculous to say that a country which holds its own citizens for ransom is not doing well.

Manufacturing Power in Decline

Finally, China’s manufacturing might is facing grave issues. Domestic consumption of Chinese goods has, according to Dr. Shirk, decreased significantly—a side effect of things such as a bottleneck in the Chinese population.

China has then had to increase its exportation of products to account for the vast surplus it creates but cannot consume. Aside from being a sign of the weakening of Chinese industry and consumption, this increased exportation has led to a worsening in China’s foreign relations; few countries enjoy having their own industry supplanted by another country’s production of that product.

A New Perspective on the Future of Sino-American Relations

Without a doubt, Sino-American relations remain a major issue in foreign policy and in general. I do not think the gravity of the relationship is overstated. However, it does not appear that the future is so set and so bleak as popular sources make it out to be.

China faces many issues internally and internationally which obscure what the ultimate result of Chinese and American relations will be. Both the United States and China appear to have a chance at domination over the other—but which will prevail remains to be determined.