Interview: “Politics in South Carolina and Who Will Win the Senate”, with Jessica Taylor (The Cook Political Report)

Jessica Taylor spoke on “Who Will Win the House and Senate?” on Oct. 22, 2024, at the Tocqueville Center event, Parties and Elections in America. 

Jessica Taylor is the Senate and Governors Editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Before joining Cook, Taylor was a political reporter for NPR for five years, where she covered elections and breaking news, ranging from the White House to both chambers of Congress and statewide elections. An East Tennessee native, she graduated magna cum laude in 2007 with a BA in political science from Furman University, where she is a member of the Alumni Board. She is the first female senior author for The Almanac of American Politics in the book’s 50-year history, a role she held for both the 2022 and 2024 editions. Taylor has previously served as a senior analyst/reporter for The Rothenberg Political Report (now Inside Elections). Her quotes and analysis appear in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and numerous other publications. She has reported on politics for several prestigious outlets over the past decade — including the NBC News Political Unit, National Journal, POLITICO, and The Hill, where she served as campaign editor. She has appeared on PBS, MSNBC, Fox News, C-SPAN and CNN. Her expert analysis contributed to real-time election night coverage and analysis at CBS in 2012 and for C-SPAN in 2020 and 2022.

On the state of politics in South Carolina

TOCQUEVILLE CENTER: As someone who attended Furman University and has lived in South Carolina, do you have any observations about politics in South Carolina that you’d like to share? 

JESSICA TAYLOR: 

In the last election, the partisanship of the state won out even as Lindsey Graham’s approval ratings were not great. And you know, I’ve been asked also a lot about the governor’s race. For instance, McMaster will be term-limited in 2026. He’ll be terminal. I get asked by a lot of students about governor’s’ races, so although I’ve been focusing on Senate races we could also talk about governor’s races.  With Senate races, we see just how partisan these races have become. Because in 2016, every single Senate race went the same way as the presidential race. In 2020, only one race was different. Susan Collins in Maine managed to win re-election even as Biden carried her state.  But governor’s races are, I think, the last bastions where candidates matter a little bit more.  And so I’ve been asked about in a couple of classes by students about what can make for sort of an upset when it comes to governors because you have, for instance, a Democratic governor in Kentucky. You have a Republican governor in Vermont. 

“With Senate races, we see just how partisan these races have become. Because in 2016, every single Senate race went the same way as the presidential race. In 2020, only one race was different.”

I think there’s a couple of things. I think you have to have a disqualifying candidate. You have to have someone who would work against the partisanship of the state. And then I think you have to have a candidate that has crossover appeal from the other side. So we’ve seen that in some of those governorships where it’s been there, but governors are the last place where voters can vote more for the candidate, because the party doesn’t get a prize for having those governors across the country. Republicans have 27 to 23 for Democrats. But when it comes down to the Senate, you’re voting for which party you want to have control. So we’ve just seen them increasingly emphasize that when it comes to Senate races. And I think that was one of the arguments that really won out in that Senate race here in South Carolina in 2020. 

Predictions regarding the Senate races

TOCQUEVILLE CENTER: What are your predictions regarding the Senate races this election cycle? 

JESSICA TAYLOR:

Actually, the Senate is heavily favored to go Republican. But I think the House is more of a toss-up because the presidency is a toss-up right now.It matters which third of the Senate is up every six years, right? Senators are elected for six-year terms, so this class of senators includes ones that won in 2006.

Democrats won back the Senate in the backlash to the Bush White House. Bush didn’t suffer the typical first midterm losses that the incumbent presidentdoes because of 9/11. So 2002 was still very much a rally-around-the-flag election. They lost the Senate in 2006. In 2012, Obama re-elected another strong Democratic year. And then these other senators were also re-elected in 2018, which was the backlash to the Trump White House. So they’re running in a much tougher environment than they have ever run in. And there’s just more Democratic seats. They’re defending 23 seats to just 11 for Republicans. And those are in either states that Trump won by double digits or almost double digits, like West Virginia, and then Montana by a 16-point Trump state, in Ohio an eight-point Trump state. So Democrats start with a 51-49 majority, but they’re going to lose the open West Virginia seat.

So we start at 50-50, which means that Democrats can’t lose any Senate races. They have to defend every single incumbent. And Kamala Harris also needs to win the presidency. Montana is where Jon Tester is the underdog. We have that race rated lean Republican. So that’s the whole ball game basically, unless Democrats can flip a state. Texas is the next is the next opportunity that they have. But I think that still remains tough. It’s a closer race certainly than Republicans expected, but I think it’s still very close. We still have that race rated lean Republican. And then the question becomes more, how big does a Republican majority in the Senate get? And what could that mean with either helping a Trump White House or blocking a Harris administration, right? You know, because if it’s 54 or something seats, if they also flip Ohio and maybe Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that gets you to 54. And is she going to get any of her cabinet appointments through? And what happens when there are judicial nominees?

“And then the question becomes more, how big does a Republican majority in the Senate get? And what could that mean with either helping a Trump White House or blocking a Harris administration, right?”

So this really does matter. But I mean, Republicans definitely have the edge. Of the three we’re looking at, and Democrats will admit this, that is where that Republicans have the edge.

Reflections on Political Science at Furman University

TOCQUEVILLE CENTER: As a Furman alumna, could you reflect back on the education you received at Furman University? 

JESSICA TAYLOR: 

Coming to Furman was the best decision I ever made. I mean, I grew up in a really small town in Tennessee, in public schools. And coming here, I think for the first time, I felt like I was around people like me that were curious and that like learning. And I came to Furman in large part because I wanted a small class size and I wanted interaction with professors.

And almost two decades after I graduated I continue to have that. I continue to stay in touch with professors. Coming back this week just feels like coming home. Some things have changed since I’ve left, for example, when I was here the political science department had what is now called the Furman Advantage program. I would not be where I am if I had not been encouraged by my professors here, specifically Doctor Benson, to pursue internships. And I was able to get funding for those internships through the department advantage program.  Now that has been sort of more formalized through the university,  so I think the political science department was ahead of the university in many of those instances. And I think that’s a very good thing because I was able to get a job right out of college, and it was because of the internships that I had.

 

“I just can’t say enough great things about the political science department, the way that they are invested in students’ lives and in helping you succeed and become curious, inquisitive citizens.”

 

I just can’t say enough great things about the political science department, the way that they are invested in students’ lives and in helping you succeed and become curious, inquisitive citizens. 

Tocqueville Center

Oct. 22, 2024