Trump’s fate in 2024 may rest on whether he can repeat his biggest surprise from 2016

Jim Guth, the Willian R. Kenan Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Furman University, was quoted in a CNN Politics article. The story explored how the Republican party has voted in recent election cycles, with education level becoming a predominant line of demarcation, especially in 2016, when Trump ran for the nation’s highest office. The dynamic of education levels overtaking evangelical affiliation as the key dividing line among GOP voters was “unique to Trump,” Guth told analyst Ronald Brownstein. “You don’t find that kind of division generally for Republican candidates.”

Guth said that DeSantis, with his more reserved approach, may see traction among the college-educated Republican electorate, especially evangelicals, “who don’t like the Trump style even though they like the Trump policies.” DeSantis, having planted his flag in the socially conservative camp, might be more appealing than Trump among “the middle class and upper middle class evangelical types,” especially after the events of January 6, Guth said.

Guth also commented on the current field of potential Republican candidates and their chances for preventing another divide and conquer win for Trump.